79% of all new car sales in 2045 will be BEVs; automotive aftermarket e-commerce to reach $47 billion by 2025

Auto Care Association and AASA release two new automotive aftermarket reports providing forecasts and analysis of new technologies impacting the industry

Published: Dec. 13, 2021 at 10:25 AM EST|Updated: 3 hours ago

BETHESDA, Md., Dec. 13, 2021 /PRNewswire/ — The Auto Care Association, in partnership with Automotive Aftermarket Suppliers Association (AASA), commissioned the 2021 Joint Electrification Forecast and the 2021 Joint E-commerce Trends and Outlook Forecast to insights needed to navigate these developing trends. The China market, with its pronounced policies and sales rates of electric vehicle (EV) cars at levels four times that of the United States, presents an ideal look into the future of how the global EV market is likely to evolve. The COVID-19 pandemic’s effect on retail shopping in 2020 resulted in a rapid shift to e-commerce adoption in the auto care industry, with e-commerce sales of aftermarket parts and accessories (excluding marketplaces) projected to increase by 11.7% to more than $18 billion in 2021. These two newly released reports provide the latest data, trends and analysis on how the adoption of these new technologies may impact the automotive aftermarket and provide future opportunities for growth.

The 30-page 2021 Joint Electrification Forecast report includes:

• A complete projection of the growth of EV of new car sales and vehicles in operation (VIO) through the year 2045 under three scenarios: base, low, and high EV adoption;
• Projections on total battery-powered electric vehicle (BEV) model count by vehicle class, showing how the popular SUV style is driving EV design as vehicle manufacturers provide more options;
• How EV affects the growth of aftermarket parts sales through 2030, 2035, 2040, and 2045; and
• How shops can offset projected service opportunities due to EVs with new opportunities created by EVs.

By 2045, 79% of all new car sales are expected to be BEVs or plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and will account for 36% of vehicles in operation (VIO). The 2021 Joint Electrification Forecast report also contains charts and analysis detailing factors impacting EV adoption; key growth contributors to the aftermarket; trajectory of EV model availability in North America; forecasted performance of EV models relative to other segments; projected share of EVs in car parc for 2021-2045; projected market growth through 2045; new growth opportunities for categories of service; and more.

“We are looking at evolution, not revolution, said Paul McCarthy, president and CEO, AASA. “While EV replacement parts sales will double in size between now and 2025, and again between 2025 and 2030, EVs still have a long road before they account for a large percentage of aftermarket sales.”

“Given we already have a fleet of over 280 million vehicles, our industry will be driven by the internal combustion engine for the next couple of decades,” said Bill Hanvey, president and CEO, Auto Care Association.

Research and analysis in the 2021 Joint Electrification Forecast report was contributed by Strategy&, the strategy division of PwC; IHS Markit, IMR Inc.; Schwartz Advisors; and YCP Solidiance.

The 32-page 2021 Joint E-commerce Trends and Outlook Forecast report includes:

• A consolidated view of the e-commerce growth through the year 2025 covering e-tailers from AutoZone to O’Reilly to Walmart;
• How quickly the e-commerce market will grow year-over-year through 2025;
• E-commerce penetration growth in the automotive aftermarket for U.S. consumers, and how it compares across industries;
• Exploration of the differing online purchasing behaviors by generation and demographic; and
• The impact of COVID-19 as an accelerant to e-commerce adoption.

E-commerce adoption has grown from 6.5% in 2018 to 12.1% in 2021, representing nearly a 100% increase. The 2021 Joint E-commerce Trends and Outlook Forecast report also contains graphs and analysis detailing consumer trends driving e-commerce growth; how to reach the online aftermarket consumer; the state of the automotive aftermarket; and more.

“We saw the value of aftermarket products sold through e-commerce hit nearly $32 billion in 2020, and this number is growing for 2021,” said Bill Hanvey, president and CEO, Auto Care Association. “E-commerce growth across all retail providers and marketplaces will hit $47 billion by 2025.”

“This study is the only place you will find this detailed forecast of consolidated e-commerce sales,” said Paul McCarthy, president and CEO, AASA.

Research and analysis in the 2021 Joint E-commerce Trends and Outlook Forecast report was contributed by Jefferies, GCommerce, Hedges & Company, IHS Markit, IMR Inc., and M Science.

Auto Care Association and AASA members receive complimentary access to these reports as a membership benefit. These reports may be purchased at the non-member price for $1,500 each and can be accessed instantly on the Auto Care Digital Hub at digital.autocare.org or on the AASA website at aftermarketsuppliers.org/resource.

About the Auto Care Association  
The Auto Care Association is the voice of the auto care industry, a $380 billion plus industry comprised of more than 4.4 million American workers. Providing advocacy, educational, networking, technology, market intelligence and data resources to serve the collective interests of members, the Auto Care Association serves the entire supply chain of the automotive aftermarket: businesses that manufacture, distribute and sell motor vehicle parts, accessories, tools, equipment, materials and supplies, and perform vehicle service, maintenance and repair. To learn more, visit www.autocare.org. 

About AASA
AASA (www.aftermarketsuppliers.org) exclusively serves manufacturers of aftermarket components, tools and equipment, and related products, an important part of the automotive parts manufacturing industry which supports 871,000 American jobs. AASA is a recognized industry change agent – promoting a collaborative industry environment, providing a forum to address issues and serving as a valued resource for members. AASA is the light vehicle aftermarket division of the Motor & Equipment Manufacturers Association (MEMA). “AASA, The Voice for the Automotive Aftermarket Supplier Industry.”

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